Colombo, 30 September 2026 – Sri Lanka’s headline inflation, measured by the Colombo Consumer Price Index (CCPI, 2021=100) on a year-on-year (Y-o-Y) basis, remained unchanged at 8.0% in September 2026, mirroring the figure recorded in August 2026. This stability in headline inflation comes amidst an uptick in food inflation and an acceleration in core inflation, according to data released by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL).
Key Inflationary Trends in September 2026
While the overall headline figure held steady, a deeper dive into the sub-categories reveals nuanced movements within the economy:
- Food Inflation: The Y-o-Y food inflation saw an increase, climbing to 8.7% in September 2026 from 8.5% in August 2026. This rise was primarily driven by higher prices observed in categories such as Fresh Fruits and Big Onion.
- Non-Food Inflation: Conversely, non-food inflation remained stable at 7.7% in September 2026, consistent with the previous month. The primary contributor to the marginal monthly change in non-food prices was the Education sub-category.
- Monthly Change: On a month-on-month basis, the CCPI registered a marginal increase of 0.19% in September 2026. The food category accounted for the lion’s share of this increase, contributing 0.15 percentage points, while the non-food category added 0.04 percentage points.
- Core Inflation: A notable development was the acceleration of core inflation, which rose to 5.4% (Y-o-Y) in September 2026 from 5.1% in August 2026. Core inflation, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, provides a clearer picture of underlying price pressures.
Central Bank Projections and Future Outlook
The realised quarterly average inflation for the third quarter of 2026 is in line with the Central Bank’s recent projections. According to the inflation projections made during the monetary policy round in September 2026, headline inflation is anticipated to remain in high single digits through the first quarter of 2027.
The CBSL maintains its forward guidance, projecting that inflation will gradually ease towards the 5% target thereafter. This 5% inflation target was established under the Monetary Policy Framework Agreement (MPFA) signed between the Central Bank and the Minister of Finance in October 2023, underscoring the commitment to price stability as a cornerstone of economic recovery.
As Sri Lanka’s economy navigates through various domestic and global challenges, the Central Bank’s vigilant monitoring and proactive monetary policy adjustments will be crucial in steering inflation towards its medium-term target, thereby fostering a stable economic environment for growth and investment.
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