Colombo, Sri Lanka – 02 October 2026
Sri Lanka’s vital agricultural sector presented a complex picture of growth and contraction in August 2026, according to the latest Agriculture Data Bulletin released by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL). Compiled by the Economic Research Department, the bulletin, dated 1st August 2026, offers crucial insights into paddy, tea, rubber, coconut, and fisheries production, alongside trends in other field crops, livestock, export agriculture, and agricultural input imports.
Paddy Production: A Mixed Harvest Outlook
The bulletin highlights a significant forecast for the 2026 Yala season, with paddy production estimated at 2.01 million metric tons. This represents a 12.8% decline compared to the previous Yala season, based on sown extent as of end-June 2026. However, the preceding 2025/26 Maha season recorded a robust 3.13 million metric tons, a commendable 14.2% increase from the prior Maha season.
Cumulatively, the total paddy production estimate for 2026 stands at 5.15 million metric tons, marking a modest 1.9% increase over the previous year. Notably, rice imports saw a decline in July 2026, following the conclusion of temporary import restrictions.
Export Crops: Resilience and Challenges
Tea Sector Shows Signs of Recovery
Despite earlier production losses, the tea sector demonstrated a degree of recovery in July 2026. Domestic tea production marginally decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, an improvement from more significant declines seen earlier in the year. Globally, tea prices experienced a slight dip in August 2026, primarily influenced by a decline at the Kolkata auction, though Colombo and Mombasa auctions recorded slight increases.
Rubber Production Remains Stable
Sri Lanka’s rubber production maintained broad stability in July 2026 compared to the same period last year, showing a marginal 0.7% month-on-month increase (seasonally adjusted). International natural rubber prices saw a slight decline, attributed to increasing seasonal production from Southeast Asia easing global supply concerns.
Coconut Production Declines, Export Products Surge
Coconut production recorded an 8.9% year-on-year decline during May-June 2026, partly due to a high base effect from the corresponding period in 2025. This contributed to a slight increase in retail coconut prices in August. Interestingly, while local coconut oil prices remained broadly stable, international coconut oil prices continued their downward trend. Despite the production dip, exports of value-added coconut products like desiccated nuts and coconut oil saw substantial increases in the first half of 2026.
Fisheries and Other Agricultural Staples
The marine fish production sector faced headwinds, declining by a significant 20.0% year-on-year in July 2026. This contraction is primarily linked to rising sea surface temperatures and elevated fuel prices. Consequently, retail fish prices remained high in recent months of 2026.
For other field crops, the bulletin provides detailed seasonal production figures and highlights import trends for key food items such as Dhal, Potato, and Big Onion, which generally saw decreases in imports during January-July 2026 compared to the previous year. Sugar production increased, and imports decreased in the first seven months of 2026, while international sugar prices rose due to global supply tightening and India’s ongoing export ban.
Livestock, Export Agriculture, and Input Costs
The livestock sector saw minor fluctuations, with egg production marginally decreasing, while chicken production remained stable. Farmgate prices for eggs and chicken showed slight increases, paralleling a rise in feed ingredient costs such as maize, soybean meal, and fish meal.
In export agriculture, August 2026 brought positive news for several spice crops. Market prices for pepper, coffee, cocoa, nutmeg, cinnamon, ginger, and turmeric all increased month-on-month, driven by growing global demand, especially for cinnamon. This translated into strong growth in spice export earnings, largely propelled by pepper exports.
Conversely, the imports of crucial agricultural inputs, including vegetable seeds, potato seeds, and various fertilizers (Urea, Phosphatic, Potassic), experienced declines during January-July 2026 compared to the same period last year.
Global Context and Future Outlook
The FAO Food Price Index saw an increase in August 2026, with price indices rising across all commodity groups, underscoring the dynamic nature of international agricultural markets. This global context will undoubtedly influence Sri Lanka’s food security and agricultural trade balances.
The CBSL’s August 2026 Agriculture Data Bulletin serves as a vital tool for policymakers, economists, and stakeholders, providing a comprehensive overview of the sector’s performance and highlighting areas requiring strategic intervention to bolster food security and economic resilience in Sri Lanka.
Source: Read the full CBSL Agriculture Data Bulletin – August 2026
