The agriculture sector demonstrates resilience amidst global and local challenges, with targeted interventions capable of driving sustainable growth. Innovations, policy support, and market diversification will be pivotal in realizing the sector’s full potential. By 2025, agriculture’s contribution to GDP is expected to expand, reflecting the sector’s critical role in food security and export earnings.
Key Highlights of October and November 2024
- Paddy Production: The 2024 Yala season is forecasted to yield 2.02 million metric tons, an 11.4% increase over the previous Yala season. Annual paddy production for 2023 saw a significant growth of 33% year-over-year (y-o-y), attributed to improved yields in both Maha and Yala seasons.
- Tea: Domestic production fell by 7.5% y-o-y in October, with low and medium-grown varieties showing marginal gains during January-October 2024.
- Rubber: A strong rebound in October saw production increase by 38% y-o-y, although global prices declined due to lower demand from China and the EU’s regulatory uncertainties.
- Coconut: Production dropped sharply by 24% y-o-y in October. While desiccated nut production rose marginally, coconut oil production contracted significantly by 30.9%.
- Sugar: Domestic sugar production surged by 109.8% y-o-y in October, driven by higher yields and favorable weather.
Sectoral Analysis
- Livestock: Egg and chicken production showed resilience with 2024 output exceeding 2023 levels. However, feed costs remained elevated, pressuring profitability.
- Vegetables and Other Field Crops: Key crops like tomatoes, beans, and maize showed positive forecasts for the 2024 Yala season, indicating potential recovery.
- Fisheries: Inland fish production declined sharply, contributing to an overall 13% drop in fish output in October 2024.
Growth Predictions for 2025 and Beyond
- Paddy and Rice: Improved irrigation and adoption of hybrid seeds are expected to enhance yields in the coming years, with production projected to grow by 8-10% annually.
- Tea and Rubber: Diversification into higher-value products and export-oriented strategies could stabilize these sectors despite global price volatility. Tea production is forecasted to grow by 2-3%, while rubber could see a 5% boost if global demand recovers.
- Coconut and Sugar: Targeted replanting initiatives and modernized mills are likely to stabilize coconut output, with moderate recovery expected in sugar production due to increased local demand.
- Livestock and Fisheries: Continued investment in feed technology and aquaculture is essential to reversing the decline in inland fish production, with an anticipated annual growth of 5-7% in livestock and aquaculture
